XAU / USD rebound remains elusive below $ 1,786, US data, focus on Fed

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Gold resumes offers to refresh its intraday high around $ 1,758, up 0.20% on a day, healing wounds early on Friday.

The precious metal fell the most since August 06 the previous day due to the escalation of talks about cutting the Fed over the next week. Bets on the consolidation of the US central bank’s easy-money policies gained momentum after US retail sales for August and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index for September turned out better than expected and before. That said, the US retail sales MoM hit its highest level in five months while beating expectations by -0.8% with numbers of + 0.7%. Additionally, the Philly Fed’s gauge also rose sharply to 30.7 from 19 and 19.4 forecasts previously, marking the highest numbers in three months.

It should be noted, however, that the latest Reuters poll of 51 economists pushes the cut back to the November meeting while citing concerns about inflation. The survey also alludes to the negative impact of the Delta Covid variant on third-quarter U.S. GDP.

Read: Reuters poll: Delta darkens US growth outlook in third quarter, Fed cut announcement expected in November

In addition to the temper tantrums that have subsided recently, a tweet from Fox News’ Chad Pergram is also helping the merchandise bounce back. “WH says Biden, Pelosi & Schumer spoke on the social spending bill by phone today,” the reporter tweeted. Prior to that, Axios broke the news, saying, “President Biden failed to persuade Senator Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) to agree to spend $ 3.5 trillion on the Democrats’ budget reconciliation plan at their Oval Office meeting on Wednesday. “

On the contrary, the risky mood has been supported by discussions that the United States, United Kingdom and Australia are indirectly challenging China with a securities pact and the United States’ reception of the UK, India, Australia and Japan for diplomatic talks next week. Additionally, the Sino-U.S. Struggles, recently over Taiwan, join hurricanes that challenge U.S. Gulf oil companies to add to the risky mood and foster demand for safe haven from the US. American dollar. According to the latest updates, the United States and Australia are issuing a joint statement expressing concerns over the South China Sea claims while also expressing willingness to strengthen ties with Taiwan.

Looking ahead, headlines about the US stimulus, Fed and covid, not to mention China, could keep gold traders entertained, likely extending the corrective pullback. However, the preliminary reading of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment Index for September, expected 72.2 versus 70 previously, will be the key data to watch today that could help better forecast Federal Open Market Committee movements ( FOMC) next week.

Read: Fed snapshot: Three ways Powell could lower the dollar, and none is the dot-plot

Technical analysis

Gold prices rebound to a wide area of ​​2.5 month old horizontal support, but hold on to the previous day’s breakout of an ascending trendline support, now resistance.

With bearish signals from the MACD and trading supported below key moving averages joining Thursday’s breakout of support, gold bears remain in control unless the quote rebounds beyond support turned resistance near 1. $ 786.

Even so, the 50-DMA and 200-DMA, around $ 1,796 and $ 1,808 respectively, challenge buyers before heading them to the key horizontal hurdle around $ 1,834.

Meanwhile, gold sellers can wait for a downside breakout of $ 1,750 to take new entries targeting $ 1,738. Then, $ 1,717 and $ 1,700 could keep bears entertained before the annual low of nearly $ 1,687.

Overall, gold prices exhibit short hedging movements that are insufficient to remind metal buyers.

Gold: Daily chart

Trend: new weakness expected


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