The instability is in the details, by Alejandra Costa


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There is a huge distance between a politically and economically stable country and one in which economic agents have been forced to tolerate political instability. for the president stone castlethe update in the fourth quarter of 2021 of the risk index of Bloomberg it is irrefutable proof of the first, while a more detailed look is rather proof that we have been living with the second for too long.

The president took advantage and tweeted data from a report prepared by the newspaper “La Tercera” of Chile using this index – which is calculated on the basis of political, economic and financial risk indicators, in comparison with other countries – as confirmation “that it is indeed a government of change that it is building” and that ” the Peru it has the strongest and most stable economy” in the region.

It is true that the Peru moved to Chile as the most stable economy according to this index for a quarter, but it must be said that this is not the first time that this has happened. the Peru exceeded Chile several times since 2009, but in all of them it returned to second place in the immediately following quarter. It would therefore be wise to wait a little longer to “declare victory”.

Moreover, if we examine in detail the scores of each of the three components, we will see that in the last quarter of 2021, the Peru recorded a clear recovery in financial indicators, while Chile it remained at the very low levels to which both countries have fallen since the second quarter of last year.

This difference was due to the fact that towards the end of 2021 in the Peru The effects of government stumbles on sovereign risk, the exchange rate and the stock market have calmed down, while the election campaign has continued to hit these financial indicators in Chile.

It is this difference that gave the Peru an advantage, despite the fact that the political component has remained constantly at embarrassing levels since 2019 and that the economic component fell in the last quarter of last year below the Chilean score.

Instead of making headlines, it would be nice if Chateau intends to put an end to the extremely low level of the political indicator – which reflects the country’s institutional weakness, ambient corruption and the poor business environment – ​​and is concerned about the drop in economic indicators.

The president had better look at INEI reports that show how the economy is slowing and how long it will take for employment to return to at least 2019 levels. Peru compared to our neighbors, while here millions of Peruvians have not yet recovered from the blow of the pandemic.


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